It is difficult to appreciate the iceberg beneath all the products and services one can buy. Thus, for our plugs to work, there are high and low voltage networks throughout the country; people educated in universities; regulation; planning; a lot of Tesla (the real one, not the car); Fourier transforms and gigantic measurement and billing systems. There is also complex logistics and supplies supporting hospitals, factories, hotels, and waxing centers. Supply is the photosynthesis that nourishes products and services and partly explains why some countries with sun and beaches attract tourists and others do not, or why some countries produce machinery, automobiles, or startups while others do not.
The more technologically advanced and large a sector is, the more complex the system supporting it is. It is logical; an amoeba is not the same as a bear. In the world of defense, provisioning is also crucial, so much so that there is an old military saying that goes, “Amateurs discuss strategy; professionals discuss logistics.” It has always been this way: in the pre-modern age, provisioning determined the size of armies, the nature of campaigns, and the objectives to conquer. Armies could only transport a month and a half of supplies since the carriers also consumed what they transported. That is why armies would plunder supplies when operating on enemy territory. The more professional an army was, the more efficient it was at scavenging flour, grinding it, and making bread. It was provisioning, not population or wealth, that limited Roman and medieval armies.
Technology, in turn, affects provisioning: the Mongols had attack groups in which each soldier went with several horses, including lactating mares that ate grass and nourished their soldier with their blood and milk. Sailing ships also allowed for very efficient provisioning. Trains enabled massive supply transport without consuming it, which is why colossal armies emerged in World War I. In Ukraine, American production, supply, and logistics will largely determine the expected counteroffensive.
Today, defense technological platforms are the most complex technological systems on the planet; you just must see the development and maintenance costs they entail. Their provisioning ecosystems are also complex, something the Russians are realizing to their regret.
Provisioning was what limited Roman and medieval armies.
Thus, when Europe proclaims that it must have autonomy in security, it is announcing that it must further develop its ecosystem of companies, professionals, regulation, incentives, and defense-related technology. Achieving this will be long and difficult but not everlasting. It will also be difficult to assess progress in achieving it since, just like cooking rice, we will only know if it has turned out well in the end.
Therefore, we will have to manage all of this diligently, professionally, and monitor progress meticulously. We will also need to equip ourselves with large reserves of supplies since in a crisis, they will determine our ability to face it. Let’s do it; otherwise, there is a possibility that in the future, we will pay a bloody price, and as a result, our grandchildren will consider us incompetent and irresponsible. If that were to happen, they would be right. Expecting anything else would be like hoping that Pontius Pilate could be remembered as a good provincial administrator of the Roman Empire.
Written by Marc Murtra in La Vanguardia: Supplies from Ukraine and Mongolian mares
